IMF前主席演讲.doc

Northeast Asia: Seizing the Opportunities of GlobalizationSpeech by Horst KöhlerManaging Director of the International Monetary FundAt the International Conference on a New Vision and Strategy under Changing Leadership in Northeast AsiaSeoul, February 27, 2004 东北亚：抓住全球化的机遇 演辞霍斯特克勒 管理国际货币基金主任 本会在上一个新的视野和战略问题国际会议正在嬗变中的东北亚领导力 汉城，2004年2月27日 Mr. President, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,It is a privilege to participate in this important conference today. It is a particular pleasure for me to be back in Seoul. When I was here four years ago, Korea was recovering from its severe economic crisis, and still struggling with the problems of the past. Yesterday, I had the honor of meeting with President Roh and was impressed by his vision for Korea, a vision whose focus is firmly on the future, a future of peace and prosperity in Korea, securely embedded in Northeast Asia.主席先生，各位嘉宾，女士们，先生们,很荣幸来参加这次重要的会议今天。这是我特别高兴在韩国汉城回来。当我四年前在这里，韩国恢复从严重的经济危机，仍然与过去的问题所困扰。昨天，我有幸与总统卢武铉会面是由他的荣誉和韩国，一个视觉的焦点是对未来的坚定，一个和平与繁荣的未来在韩国在东北亚地区安全的嵌入式，视觉印象。2. This conference takes place against the background of a significant strengthening of the global economic outlook. Led by the United States, the world economy now has the potential for a return to solid growth. The recovery is broadening and deepening, with all major regions showing improvement. And Asia, led by China and India, is in the vanguard of the global recovery. I expect that this will be reflected in an upward revision of the IMF's estimate for global growth in 2004. This rising tide will also lift Korea, and we expect growth in this country to accelerate in 2004.2. 这次会议需要对经济前景的背景下发生的全球一个重要加强。由美国领导，现在世界经济已恢复增长，以坚实的潜力。回收率为扩大和深化，显示出改善与所有主要地区。和亚洲，中国和印度的领导下，在全球经济复苏的先锋。我期望，这将是在基金组织对2004年全球经济增长预期向上修正反映。这一潮流也将取消韩国，我们期望在这个国家在2004年加速增长。 3. But we know that there are still risks to this outlook, notably arising from the persistent current account imbalances in the global economy. The recovery is still uneven, with growth relatively rapid in the United States and emerging Asia, picking up in Japan, but with the euro area lagging behind. Ensuring that the recovery is robust and sustained requires cooperation. And such cooperation should ensure that no region bears a disproportionate burden of adjustment. This requires a durable increase in national savings in the United States, with priority on establishing a framework for returning to fiscal balance over the medium term. It requires an ambitious acceleration of the pace of structural reform in Europe and Japan to lift their productive potential. And in those countries in Asia that have experienced a rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, it requires making increased use of the scope for exchange rate flexibility and structural reforms to underpin domestic demand growth. Such commitments, made more credible by being collective, would underpin the expectation of a smooth adjustment in global imbalances.3. 但我们知道有这种风险仍然前景，特别是经济所产生的持久性，在全球经常账户失衡。但是复苏仍然不平衡，增长较快，在美国和亚洲新兴市场，加快在日本长大，但随着欧元区滞后。 确保稳健和持续的复苏是需要合作。而这种合作应确保没有一个地区承担的过重负担的调整。这就要求在优先在美国国民储蓄的持久增长，为返回建立在中期财政平衡的框架。它需要一个在欧洲和日本的结构性改革步伐的加快，取消其雄心勃勃的生产潜力。在亚洲和那些已经经历了外汇储备快速积累的国家，它需要使汇率弹性和结构改革，增加了使用范围，以支持国内需求的增长。这样的承诺，更可信的是集体的，将支持对全球失衡的顺利调整的期望。 4. Asia's growing weight in the world economy gives it an important role in global cooperation.Asia now accounts for over a quarter of world exports and one third of world output. Korea itself surely ranks among the leading examples of Asia's success: from being among the world's poorest countries, Korea's real per capita income has increased 12-fold over the past two generations. And Asia is rapidly becoming more integrated. Intra-regional trade now accounts for 40 percent of Asia's exports, compared to 30 percent a decade ago. China's strong growth, in particular, is fuelling a vibrant Northeast Asian region.4. 亚洲的增长在世界经济中的份量给它一个全球合作的重要作用。亚洲目前产量占全世界四分之一的世界出口的三分之一。韩国本身肯定跻身亚洲取得成功的最典型的例子：从在世界上最穷的国家韩国的人均实际收入，而增加了在过去两个世代的12倍。区域内贸易目前占亚洲的40出口的百分之，比十年前的百分之三十。中国的强劲增长，尤其是加剧东北亚地区一个充满活力。 5. Embracing global economic integration lies at the root of Asia's success.And globalization continues to offer much promise, for Asia and for the world. I see tremendous potential for further long-term growth in the global economy. Technological progress continues at a rapid pace, and ever stronger trade and financial linkages are promoting further international division of labor and expanding markets-holding out the promise of gains in productivity and standards of living everywhere. But these gains are not automatic. Many have not been able to seize the opportunities offered by globalization, and severe poverty persists in too many countries. And as we know from experience, openness and economic interdependence can exacerbate the spillovers of economic shocks across countries, and amplify domestic economic problems. Moreover, the rapid integration of China, India, and other large emerging markets into the world economy is raising competitive pressures for everyone, increasing the need for flexibility and innovation.5. 迎接全球经济一体化的成功的根源在于在亚洲。和全球化继续提供充满希望，对亚洲和世界。我认为进一步的长期全球经济增长的巨大潜力。技术进步继续以快速的步伐，不断加强贸易和金融联系正在进一步促进国际分工，扩大市场控股了在世界各地的生产力水平和生活水平收益的承诺。但这些成果是不是自动的。许多人没有能够抓住全球化带来的机遇和严峻的贫困在许多国家仍然存在。当我们从经验中知道，开放和经济相互依存会加剧各国经济冲击的外溢，健全的国内经济问题。此外，中国，印度和其他大型新兴市场融入世界经济一体化的迅速提高大家的竞争压力，增加了灵活性和创新的需要。 6. How can other countries in Asia best address these pressures? And how can all countries ensure that they can seize benefits and opportunities of globalization while containing its inevitable risks? Allow me today to reflect briefly on these questions in the context of the rapid development of Asia, and the rise of Northeast Asia in particular.6. 如何在亚洲其他国家能够最好地解决这些压力？又如何能确保所有国家，他们可以抓住全球化的利益和机会，同时载有其不可避免的风险？请允许我对今天反映在亚洲迅速发展的背景下这些问题简单地说，与东北亚，特别是上升。7. First, domestic economic policies in Asia must continue to be geared toward building resilient and competitive economies. This requires, in particular, strengthening domestic sources of growth, including by vigorously tackling incomplete reforms in the financial and corporate sectors. It also requires pursuing policies that make economies more flexible and capable of absorbing economic shocks more easily. And it requires maintaining a good business climate, conducive to investment, growth, and employment creation.7. 第一，在亚洲的国内经济政策必须继续朝着建设面向经济活力和竞争力。这就要求，特别是加强金融和企业部门中的国内来源的不完整的改革发展，包括大力治理。它还要求奉行的政策，使经济更加灵活和更容易地吸收经济冲击的能力。它需要保持一个良好的营商环境，有利于投资，经济增长和创造就业机会。 8. Korea has made significant strides in implementing the policies needed to take advantage of the new opportunities. Its skilled work force provides a strong foundation for future growth, and has allowed it to become a major center for advanced technology products. In recent years, Korea has further opened up its economy and China is now its number one trading partner. And its prudent policies and low level of public debt have positioned it well to address the challenges of an aging society. Overall, Korea can look to the future with self-confidence that President Roh's vision of doubling per capita incomes to $20,000 is achievable. But it will require perseverance in implementing its reform agenda. Specifically, I see three critical tasks for Korea in the years ahead:8. 韩国已取得重大进展的新机会在执行需要采取的政策优势。及其熟练的劳动力提供了一个为未来的发展奠定坚实的基础，并使它成为一个技术先进的产品的主要中心。近年来，韩国进一步开放其经济，中国现在是它最大的贸易伙伴。而其审慎的政策和较低的公共债务水平的定位它很好地解决老龄化社会的挑战。总体而言，韩国可以期待与自信的未来总统卢武铉的人均收入增加一倍至20,000元的目标是可以实现的。但是，这需要在坚持实施其改革议程。具体来说，我认为在未来的三对韩国未来的关键任务： Further steps are needed to improve corporate governance, including by providing more timely and accurate information to investors, to ensure that Korea remains an attractive investment destination;有必要采取进一步措施，以改善公司治理 ，目的地包括提供更及时和准确的信息给投资者，以确保朝鲜仍然是一个有吸引力的投资; There is need to accelerate the development of a sound financial sector, including a more efficient local capital market, to better channel domestic savings to productive investment;有必要加快行业发展一个健全的财政 ，包括当地资本市场更有效率，更好地将国内储蓄，以生产性投资; And Korea needs to modernize its labor market institutions to foster flexibility and adaptability, thereby creating more and better jobs. At the same time, it needs to strengthen its social safety net to ensure that the most vulnerable in society are protected during periods of economic turbulence.此外，韩国需要现代化的劳动力市场机构 ，以促进灵活性和适应性，从而创造更多更好的就业机会。 同时，它需要加强社会安全网，以确保最脆弱的社会是在经济动荡时期的保护。 9. Second, regional cooperation in Asia must complement national policies. Growing regional and global interdependence requires that policy-makers pay increasing attention to the international context of their decisions. Recent initiatives to strengthen economic and monetary cooperation in Asia are going in the right direction and are supported by the IMF. The ASEAN +3 framework, which includes Korea and China as well as Japan, will surely play an increasingly important role in promoting regional integration. I also welcome the efforts to improve intra-Asian monetary cooperation through the Chiang Mai network of bilateral swaps. And I am encouraged by the recent signing of the free trade agreement between Korea and Chile, as a stepping stone towards broader liberalization, especially in the area of agricultural trade. However, my advice is to ensure that these regional initiatives remain consistent with broad participation in the global economy. A regional focus that remains open to the rest of the world holds the greatest promise for Asia's long-term growth prospects.9. 第二，在亚洲区域合作必须补充国家政策。种植区域和全球相互依存要求决策者日益重视的国际背景下他们的决定。最近的倡议，以加强在亚洲的经济和货币合作正在朝着正确的方向前进，并已获得国际货币基金组织的支持。东盟+3框架，其中包括韩国和中国以及日本，必将在促进区域一体化的一个日益重要的作用。我也欢迎努力改善亚洲内部通过清迈双边货币互换网络的合作。我很鼓舞的是，韩国和智利之间的自由贸易协议最近签署作为一个走向更广泛的自由化的跳板，尤其是在农产品贸易领域。不过，我的建议是要确保这些区域举措仍然在全球经济中的广泛参与是一致的。一个区域的重点，仍然是开放的世界其他国家持有亚洲的长期增长前景的最大希望。10. Third, effective multilateral cooperation is essential for a successful globalization. And trade liberalization is a key pillar of this cooperation. It is well worth reminding ourselves that the tremendous expansion in global prosperity in the second half of the 20th century was only possible in the context of broad-based, multilateral trade liberalization, within a framework of reciprocity and rules. I am aware that trade liberalization can raise difficult issues, including here in Korea, because the short-term costs to domestic competitors are often more immediately visible than the long-term benefits that will accrue to producers and consumers alike. But history has shown that Asia, including Korea, has been a primary beneficiary of multilateral trade liberalization. I share Alan Greenspan's concern that "creeping protectionism" could significantly erode the flexibility of the global economy. Averting this threat requires strengthening international cooperation to bring the Doha Round to a successful conclusion as soon as possible. And I think Korea can be a strong voice in this effort, for this highly open economy has much to gain if trade advances, and much to lose if we retreat into protectionism.10. 第三，有效的多边合作是必不可少的一个成功的全球化。贸易自由化是这种合作的主要支柱。这是值得提醒自己， 世纪得到巨大的扩展全球繁荣的20年下半年是唯一可能的范围内基础广泛的，多边贸易自由化，规则框架内互惠。我知道，贸易自由化可以提出困难的问题，包括在韩国，因为短期国内竞争对手的成本往往比看得见的更直接的长远利益，将产生对生产者和消费者。但历史已经表明，亚洲，包括韩国，一直是多边贸易自由化的主要受益者。我同意格林斯潘的关注，认为“爬行保护主义”可以大大削弱全球经济的灵活性。避免这种威胁，需要加强国际合作，以使多哈回合取得圆满成功，尽快。而我认为韩国可以在这一努力中的强烈呼声，这高度开放的经济体系有很大的收获贸易发展，而且会损失很大，如果我们退回到贸易保护主义。 11. Since the Asian crisis, the IMF itself has gone through a process of wide-ranging reform to strengthen its ability to foster global financial stability. We are reinforcing our regular surveillance of our members' economies, focusing increasingly on vulnerabilities in financial sectors and international capital markets, which have been at the root of the crises of the late 1990s in Asia and elsewhere. We are strengthening the framework of rules for the global economy by developing and implementing international standards and codes, ranging from sound corporate governance to credible and transparent statistical systems. And we are promoting a culture of transparency, in our own operations and by encouraging our members to publish our regular assessments of their economies. In this work, I am guided by the principle of evenhandedness because stable financial markets require good policies in both emerging market economies and mature financial centers. And overall, I believe our work is beginning to pay off and has contributed to the remarkable resilience of the international financial system in the face of multiple shocks during the past three years.11. 由于亚洲危机，国际货币基金组织本身也经历了改革进程的广泛，以加强其能力，以促进全球金融的稳定。我们正在加强我们的'经济体的经常监视我们的会员，并越来越多地集中在金融部门的脆弱性国际资本市场目前已在亚洲和其他地区20世纪90年代末以来的危机的根源。我们正在加强通过制定和执行国际标准和准则，从健全的公司治理，可信和透明的统计制度中对全球经济的规则框架。同时，我们正在促进一个透明的文化，在我们自己的行动，并鼓励我们的成员公布其经济的定期评估。在这项工作中，我遵循的原则，因为公平稳定的金融市场需要金融中心的良好政策，新兴市场经济体和成熟。整体而言，我相信我们的工作已经开始得到回报，并有助于在过去三年，该方面的国际金融体系面临多重冲击韧性显着。 12. But it would be unrealistic to expect that dynamic market economies can be fully sheltered from periods of turbulence and adjustment. Indeed, it is the willingness to take risk and tackle uncertainty that drives innovation and technical progressand helps create jobs and build prosperity. We must be aware that for many, living with this uncertainty can be unsettling. And it is the responsibility of policy makers to have efficient safety nets in place. But I believe we must be clear that tackling the challenges of globalization requires always remaining in motion, i.e. the economic and political ability to adapt to constant change.12. 然而，如果充满活力的市场经济能够在调整和动荡时期得到充分的庇护，那是不切合实际的期望。事实上，它是以承担风险的意愿和处理方式的不确定性，来推动创新和技术进步，以利创造就业机会和增强经济繁荣。我们必须意识到，对于许多人来说，生活在这种不确定因素中，使人没有安全感。决策者的责任就是要建立起高效的安全网络系统。不过，我相信我们必须清楚，处理全球化的挑战，需要始终以灵活/动态的方式，即以经济和政治能力，以适应不断变化的。 13. Amidst these changes, the role of the IMF in Asia is evolving.Six years ago, the capital account crises in Thailand, Indonesia, and Korea led to some of the largest IMF financing packages in its history. Today, Korea and Thailand have fully repaid those loans ahead of schedule, and Indonesia no longer needs IMF financial support. Their robust recovery is testimony to these countries' success in implementing strong economic policies, and the IMF is proud to have worked closely with them in difficult times. Looking ahead, I have no doubt that Asia's growing role will eventually need to be reflected in a sizeable increase in the quotas of members in this region at the IMFand, as a result, in their stronger voice in the IMF's decision-making process. This is a difficult debate, which touches on the interests of many members, and I do not expect a resolution overnight. But I believe it is the right thing to do, and I support a quota increase for Asian members. Meanwhile, I encourage Asian countries, including Korea, to play an active role in our Executive Board and help us address the manifold challenges facing the global economy.13. 面对这些变化，亚洲在基金组织的作用是不断变化。六年来，泰国，印尼资本账户危机，并导致韩国一些历史上最大的在国际货币基金组织的融资方案。目前，韩国和泰国已全部提前偿还这些贷款，印尼不再需要国际货币基金组织的财政支持。他们的强劲复苏，证明了这些国家在实施稳健的经济政策取得成功，而且国际货币基金组织已经自豪地同他