全球经济展望：预期今年全球经济增长5%.docx

March 2021Global Economic OutlookContentsThe global outlook:Public spending after COVID04Countries and regions in focus:The US: Building a bridge to the post-pandemic economy 06China： Consumption and Services should contribute more to future recovery08Japan： Economy hopes for recovery during Olympic year 10India： Fiscal stimulus and targeted policy impetus to drive growth12Eurozone： Short-term setbacks followed by a fragile recovery 14UK: Nascent recovery on the horizon16Saudi Arabia： Recovery centred on oil price trends18一 Middle East: GCC leads growth in the region20Nigeria： Modest recovery despite rising oil prices22South Africa： Path towards growth and sustainability2420gl-dbpyright owned by oneKPMG Internationaf entities. KPIVW&4nternational entities provide。Appendix: KPMG country forecastsIndia: Fiscal stimulus and targeted policy mpetus to drive growthThe Indian economy is showing early signs of a broad V-shaped recovery, owing to larger public stimulus spends, the revival of consumer confidence, robust financial markets and an uptick in manufacturing activity.The proposed 34.5% hike in capital expenditure is expected to drive private investment while also boosting demand.Income levels and livelihood opportunities are expected to further improve in FY22, as economic recovery gathers pace and vaccine administration progresses.India is estimated to have one of the quickest economic rebounds in Asia.202020212022GDP4.0-8.010.5Inflation4.86.54.5Unemployment rateFY20 & FY21 is based on CMIE data.With India emerging out of the pandemic-induced recession, its GDP improved by 0.4% in the December quarter, and these trends look set to continue in the final quarter of India's financial year, which ends on 31 March 2021. This is evident from high-frequency indicators such as Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections, automobile and tractor sales, rail freight traffic, power demand, Purchasing Managers/ Index (PMI), and corporate revenues. Also, with the easing of mobility restrictions, manufacturing activity is reverting to pre-COVID levels. However, services, particularly high contact services, continue to lag.India's GDP growth is expected to rebound to 10.5% during 2021-22. To further stimulate growth, policies over recent months have been focused on reforms that propagate growth. For example, the manufacturing sector stands to benefit from Production-Linked Incentives (PLIs) announced for key sectors that aim to showcase India as a preferred manufacturing and export hub. Meanwhile, services growth is expected to gain traction in 2H22 (especially contactintensive services) as vaccine availability and deployment improves. The outlook for growth in agriculture is contingent on the monsoon season, and the sector is expected to maintain growth similar to the current financial year (3%, year-on-year), if the monsoons are normal.7.610.48.1Table 4: KPMG forecasts for IndiaSource: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Real GDP (at constant prices) for FY21 is advanced estimates.12Chart 9: Decisive signs of V-shaped recovery are visibleAs the Indian economy returns to normalcy, there could be a healthy rise in tax collections as well as an uptick in public revenues arising from the disinvestment process. In this context, it is pertinent to note that the government has indicated that the sale of government stakes in selected State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) as well as publicly owned banks and India's premier insurance company, is likely to be completed by the next financial year. This large-scale privatization process, coupled with the 6.8% fiscal deficit targeted for 2021-22, is expected to provide headway for incremental expenditures on healthcare and capital creation, which will play a pivotal role in enhancing the focus on sustainable economic development. These initiatives are expected to restore the pandemic-induced hiatus in the generation of new employment opportunities.The Indian government has undertaken a slew of reforms, including labor reforms, corporate tax cuts and PLIs to steer the economy to recovery in the next financial year. However, key factors that will drive this rebound include normal monsoons, success in averting a full-fledged second wave of COVID, and discretionary spending staying unaffected by cost pressures, particularly those stemming from high pump prices of petrol and diesel.10%器、>da。ZUXG-Xy2019-20Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. RBI Reserve Bank of India.Chart 10: Inflation is likely to ease but remain above RBI's target of 4%Preeti SitaramDirector, Infrastructure, Government and Healthcare (IGH), KPMG in IndiaSource: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. RBI - Reserve Bank of India.13Eurozone: Short-term setbacks followed by a fragile recoveryStricter social distancing restrictions put in place to combat rising infection numbers have set back recovery.Despite generous fiscal and monetary support, the path to recovery will continue to diverge across the Eurozone.As more countries entered lockdown due to a rising number of COVID cases, the Eurozone economy ended 2020 with a fresh contraction. Ongoing restrictions in the first quarter of 2021 could see further falls in output, taking the economy back into recession, albeit a much milder one than seen at the start of the pandemic in the first half of 2020.Despite the recent rise in inflation, ECB policy rates are expected to remain unchanged over the next two years, with the ECB continuing to provide support to the economy via its program of asset purchases.A range of national and EU lending facilities, together with grants, have been put in place to shield the economy. Most notably the Next Generation EU recovery plan, estimated at EUR750bn, is expected to provide support over the coming years through stronger investment as well as growth- oriented reforms.Table 5: KPMG forecasts for the Eurozone202020212022GDP-6.84.24.1Inflation0.31.21.2Unemployment rate88.98.4Source: Eurostat, KPMG forecasts. Average % change on previous calendar year except for unemployment rate, which is average annual rate. Inflation measure used is the HI CP.The outlook for this year is highly dependent on the speed of the vaccine rollout, as well as on the emergence of new variants of the virus that may require the imposition of a more prolonged series of restrictions. In addition, the varying speed of recovery from the pandemic is expected to lead to further divergence in economic performance across Eurozone countries.14General government gross debt, % of GDPSeasonally adjusted youth (under 25s) unemployment, %Germany is one of the economies within the Eurozone to suffer the least during the pandemic, with its industrial production picking up in the second half of 2020 and exports benefiting from an early recovery in China.The extensive measures undertaken by the French authorities to support its economy could see a relatively strong rebound in the second half of this year, provided that progress to contain the pandemic remains on track.Recovery in the Netherlands is expected to be primarily driven by consumer spending, with investment this year remaining relatively weak due to ongoing uncertainty about the future. High levels of household debt could make the economy vulnerable to changes in consumer sentiment, although with public debt still relatively low despite the large rise in spending during the pandemic, the government has ample room to provide additional support.A new ruling coalition in Italy, led by former ECB Governor Mario Draghi, could provide a much-needed impetus to reforms of the judicial system and regulatory frameworks. This, combined with a relatively strong recovery in investment, could lift Italy's productivity and potential future growth rate.After experiencing one of the sharpest contractions in 2020, the Spanish economy is expected to remain vulnerable this year, with the pandemic likely to dampen the busy summer tourist season and unemployment remaining high over the next two years.Chart 11: Space for additional government spending varies with government debt in Eurozone ranging between 200% to 18%GreeceItalyPortugalCyprusFranceSpainBelgiumEuro areaAustriaSloveniaGermanyFinlandIrelandSlovakiaNetherlandsMaltaLithuaniaLatviaLuxembourgEstoniaSource: Eurostat. Figures are for Q3 2020.Chart 12: The pandemic triggered a marked rise in youth unemployment in some countriesSpainGreeceItalyLithuaniaFrancePortugalLuxembourgFinlandCyprusEstoniaSlovakiaIrelandEuro areaBelgiumLatviaSloveniaAustriaMaltaNetherlandsGermanySource: Eurostat. December 2019 December 2020Yael SelfinChief Economist, KPMG in the UK15UK: Nascent recovery on the horizonFirst quarter lockdown to reverse some of the gains seen in second half of 2020.Accelerated vaccine roll-out program should support a solid recovery in second half of 2021.Brexit-related frictions and limited agreement on Services trade with the EU w川 dampen recovery.The economy managed to avoid a contraction in the fourth quarter of 2020 despite a lockdown taking place during part of the quarter. However, growth momentum eased in December with the economy contracting by 9.9% overall in 2020. A more prolonged lockdown in the first quarter of 2021 will inevitably see GDP contract, although by much less than in Q2 last year. A rapid roll-out of the vaccine is expected to facilitate relatively strong growth from Q2 onwards, with Brexit-related trade frictions expected to ease from the second half of this year.Government intervention and in particular the Job Retention Scheme, should help to keep unemployment relatively low considering the scale of the negative shock to the economy.The pace of inflation is expected to accelerate this year as the gradual economic recovery, rising oil prices and the phased expiration of temporary VAT cuts for hospitality businesses add to a more inflationary mix.Table 6: KPMG forecasts for the UK202020212022GDP-9.94.65.6Inflation0.91.61.9Unemployment rate4.55.65.8Source: ONS, KPMG forecasts. Average % change on previous calendar year except for unemployment rate, which is average annual rate. Inflation measure used is the CPI and the unemployment measure is LFS.The impact of Brexit on supply chains is also likely to push up consumer prices. However, inflation is expected to remain below the Bank of England's 2% target by next year, allowing for a longer period of low interest rates to support the economic recovery.An estimated deficit of GBP355bn for the 2020-21 fiscal year, together with the additional spending announced by the Chancellor in the March Budget to protect the economy in the short-term, could see public sector debt rise to 110% of GDP by 2023-24. However, the cost of servicing the debt is expected to remain below pre-COVID levels, while the rise in corporate tax rate and the freezing of income tax thresholds could see the deficit fall to 3% of GDP in the medium-term compared to 17% at present.Despite the severity of the recession, company insolvencies fell significantly, reaching levels well below the average prior to the pandemic (chart 13). This is likely a result of the temporary restrictions of the Corporate Insolvency and Government Act, as well as reduced judicial activities and HMRC operations and encouragement by the government to provide forbearance to businesses that are under pressure due to the pandemic. It also reflects the impact of the range of government support schemes. Once social restrictions are lifted and these protective measures are removed, we could see a significant resurgence in the number of insolvencies.In contrast, the pandemic has resulted in a sharp rise in household saving, as the lockdowns and on-going social restrictions have prevented spending on a range of services and activities (chart 14). This may signal a significant rise in consumer spending once restrictions are lifted, although survey evidence shows that the majority of additional savings is concentrated in higher income bracket households who are planning to use most of the extra money to reduce debt or to make a range of investments.Yael SelfinChief Economist, KPMG in the UKChart 13: Business failures fell markedly during the current crisis0 V 2005200820U201420172020England and Wales _ Scotland _ Northern IrelandSource: The Insolvency Service.Chart 14: Savings rose as some spending was curtailed by the lockdowns and social distancing restrictions30%Source: ONS.Kingdom of Saudi Arabia:Recovery centered on oil price trendsFiscal accounts remain robust, relative to peers, but the public sector balance sheet will remain vulnerable to oil price volatility and related international volume demand.Base effects and an oil price recovery w川 support the modest economic turnaround evident since the second half of 2020.Bans on international travel will limit Hajj-related flows on the balance of payments and national accounts until at least the latter part of 2021.Real GDP growth started to show signs of a weak turnaround - nominal GDP is expected to remain below its Q4 2019 level until Q4 2022 - in the second half of 2020, with flash estimates suggesting the year-on-year rate of contraction easing to 3.8% in the fourth quarter, following year-on-year contractions of 7% in the second quarter (at the height of domestic COVID-related lockdown measures) and 4.6% in the third quarter.Base effects will be the biggest driver of annual growth expectations of 3% year-on-year in 2021. Further support to KSA's oil and non-oil components of GDP this year will stem from a further easing of domestic pandemic-related restrictions, an oil price recovery (oil prices are expected to average USD60.4 per barrel (pb) in 2021, compared to an annual average of USD39.8 pb in 2020) as well as ongoing government spending on mega-projects and Vision 2030 initiatives.Looking forward, growth in 2022 will be supported by the trends witnessed in 2021,