玉溪市中心城区暴雨强度公式(修订)31731.pdf

.-1-/16 市中心城区暴雨强度公式（修订）1.总则 1.1 编制的必要性和目的 城市暴雨强度公式编制是城市室外排水工程规划设计的重要基础性工作。我国已经进入高速城市化时期，特大城市和城市群的出现，城市“热岛效应”凸现。城市降雨特征会发生局地性变化。已有数据说明，部分城市每隔 10 年左右出现超过历史记录的特大暴雨，近年来突发性、短时特大暴雨频发。依据水文气象频率分析的理论，基于已有的降雨记录数据，采用数理统计的方法得到的城市暴雨量、暴雨强度、降雨历时、时间空间的分布等，是科学表达城市降雨规律的一种方法，同时要认识到这种方法的科学性和局限性，以指导具体工作。城市财富的聚集和市民生活水平的提高、城市地下空间的开发利用等因素使得城市对灾害的承受能力趋弱，降雨特征的趋势性变化对城市的防灾减灾提出挑战。新建、扩建城市室外排水设施的规划建设以与已建城市排水设施历史欠账问题的解决，都需要对城市降雨规律进行科学表达和定量分析。因此，开展城市暴雨强度公式的编制与修编是非常必要的。为了适用国家需求和城市发展需求，指导城市暴雨强度公式的编制与修编，特编制本编制本地暴雨强度公式。.-2-/16 1.2 条款涉与的国家颁布的有关标准如下（但不限于）（1）室外排水设计规（GB500142006，2013 年版）（2）地面气象观测规（QX/T 52-2007）（3）地面气候资料 30 年整编常规项目与其统计方法（QX/T 22-2004）（4）地面气象观测资料质量控制（QX/T 118-2010）（5）数值修约规则与极限数值的表示和判定（GB/T 8170-2008）（6）水利水电工程设计洪水计算规（SL44-93）（7）城市排水工程规划规（GB 50318-2000）（8）建筑给水排水设计规（GB 50015-2003）（9）公路排水设计规（JTJ 018-97）2.资料与方法 降雨资料是暴雨强度公式推算的基础，暴雨强度公式与查算图表编制应以国家气象站自记降雨资料为依据，资料使用市红塔区国家基本气象站 1981 年 1 月至 2014 年 12 月逐分钟降水自记资料。降雨资料完整、合理，所用资料真实可靠。暴雨强度公式与计算图表的编制国家相关规推荐的方法基础上进行推算，推算方法与过程科学合理，采用滑动统计降雨历时的年度最大值雨量，滑动步长为 1min，降雨频率分布曲线拟合中经用皮尔逊型、指数型、耿贝尔型函数的.-3-/16 最小二乘法和高斯牛顿法运算比较。三种函数曲线的最小二乘法均能通过对均方差计算。均能通过平均绝对均方差不宜大于 0.05mm/min；在较大降雨强度的地方，平均相对均方差不宜大于 5规定的检验，皮尔逊型、指数型、耿贝尔型函数平均绝对均方差分别为 0.032mm/min、0.026mm/min、0.029mm/min。根据技术导则城市暴雨强度公式编制和设计暴雨雨型确定技术导则，最终采用皮尔逊型分布曲线拟合，确定市暴雨强度公式，计算结果的精度能达到国家标准室外排水设计规（GB500142006，2013 版）规定的要求。3.暴雨强度公式和图表 3.1 暴雨强度公式 0.8182870.528(10.633lg)(14.742)Pqt 暴雨强度算得的平均绝对均方差、平均相对均方差：平均绝对标准差：0.032mm/min 平均相对标准差：3.83%。.-4-/16 3.2 市暴雨强度历时重现期关系曲线图.-5-/16 .-6-/16 3.3 不同历时强度频率曲线图.-7-/16.-8-/16 3.4 暴雨强度查算表 市中心城区暴雨强度查算表 P=2 年 t 单位：分钟；q 单位：升/秒/公顷 t q t q t q t q t q 1 358.486 37 129.627 73 84.099 109 63.633 145 51.777 2 339.221 38 127.595 74 83.327 110 63.22 146 51.517 3 322.144 39 125.633 75 82.571 111 62.813 147 51.26 4 306.89 40 123.738 76 81.83 112 62.412 148 51.006 5 293.174 41 121.906 77 81.104 113 62.017 149 50.755 6 280.766 42 120.134 78 80.393 114 61.627 150 50.507 7 269.483 43 118.419 79 79.695 115 61.243 151 50.261 8 259.173 44 116.758 80 79.011 116 60.864 152 50.018 9 249.711 45 115.149 81 78.34 117 60.49 153 49.778 10 240.995 46 113.589 82 77.681 118 60.122 154 49.54 11 232.935 47 112.076 83 77.035 119 59.758 155 49.305 12 225.459 48 110.608 84 76.401 120 59.4 156 49.072 13 218.503 49 109.182 85 75.779 121 59.046 157 48.842 14 212.013 50 107.797 86 75.168 122 58.697 158 48.614 15 205.942 51 106.451 87 74.568 123 58.353 159 48.388 16 200.249 52 105.143 88 73.978 124 58.013 160 48.165 17 194.899 53 103.87 89 73.399 125 57.677 161 47.944 18 189.861 54 102.631 90 72.83 126 57.346 162 47.726 19 185.108 55 101.425 91 72.271 127 57.019 163 47.509 20 180.614 56 100.251 92 71.722 128 56.697 164 47.295 21 176.359 57 99.107 93 71.182 129 56.378 165 47.083 22 172.324 58 97.992 94 70.651 130 56.063 166 46.873 23 168.491 59 96.904 95 70.129 131 55.753 167 46.666 24 164.845 60 95.844 96 69.615 132 55.446 168 46.46 25 161.373 61 94.809 97 69.11 133 55.143 169 46.256 26 158.061 62 93.8 98 68.613 134 54.844 170 46.055 27 154.898 63 92.814 99 68.124 135 54.548 171 45.855 28 151.875 64 91.851 100 67.643 136 54.256 172 45.657 29 148.981 65 90.911 101 67.169 137 53.967 173 45.462 30 146.209 66 89.991 102 66.703 138 53.682 174 45.268 31 143.551 67 89.093 103 66.244 139 53.4 175 45.076 32 140.999 68 88.215 104 65.792 140 53.122 176 44.885 33 138.547 69 87.355 105 65.347 141 52.847 177 44.697 34 136.189 70 86.515 106 64.909 142 52.575 178 44.51 35 133.92 71 85.692 107 64.477 143 52.306 179 44.325 36 131.734 72 84.887 108 64.052 144 52.04 180 44.142 .-9-/16 市中心城区暴雨强度查算表 P=3 年 t 单位：分钟；q 单位：升/秒/公顷 t q t q t q t q t q 1 402.199 37 146.949 73 95.435 109 72.222 145 58.763 2 380.986 38 144.653 74 94.56 110 71.754 146 58.468 3 362.137 39 142.437 75 93.703 111 71.292 147 58.177 4 345.265 40 140.296 76 92.863 112 70.837 148 57.888 5 330.066 41 138.226 77 92.04 113 70.388 149 57.603 6 316.294 42 136.223 78 91.233 114 69.946 150 57.321 7 303.752 43 134.285 79 90.442 115 69.51 151 57.042 8 292.277 44 132.408 80 89.667 116 69.08 152 56.766 9 281.734 45 130.588 81 88.906 117 68.655 153 56.493 10 272.011 46 128.824 82 88.159 118 68.237 154 56.223 11 263.011 47 127.113 83 87.427 119 67.825 155 55.956 12 254.656 48 125.452 84 86.708 120 67.418 156 55.692 13 246.875 49 123.839 85 86.002 121 67.016 157 55.43 14 239.61 50 122.273 86 85.309 122 66.62 158 55.171 15 232.809 51 120.75 87 84.628 123 66.229 159 54.915 16 226.428 52 119.269 88 83.96 124 65.843 160 54.662 17 220.427 53 117.828 89 83.303 125 65.462 161 54.411 18 214.773 54 116.426 90 82.658 126 65.086 162 54.163 19 209.436 55 115.061 91 82.023 127 64.715 163 53.917 20 204.388 56 113.732 92 81.4 128 64.349 164 53.674 21 199.606 57 112.437 93 80.788 129 63.987 165 53.433 22 195.069 58 111.174 94 80.185 130 63.63 166 53.195 23 190.757 59 109.943 95 79.593 131 63.277 167 52.959 24 186.655 60 108.742 96 79.01 132 62.929 168 52.725 25 182.746 61 107.57 97 78.437 133 62.585 169 52.494 26 179.016 62 106.426 98 77.873 134 62.245 170 52.265 27 175.454 63 105.31 99 77.318 135 61.91 171 52.038 28 172.047 64 104.219 100 76.772 136 61.578 172 51.814 29 168.786 65 103.154 101 76.235 137 61.25 173 51.591 30 165.66 66 102.112 102 75.706 138 60.927 174 51.371 31 162.662 67 101.094 103 75.185 139 60.607 175 51.153 32 159.784 68 100.099 104 74.672 140 60.29 176 50.937 33 157.018 69 99.126 105 74.167 141 59.978 177 50.723 34 154.357 70 98.173 106 73.67 142 59.669 178 50.511 35 151.795 71 97.241 107 73.18 143 59.364 179 50.301 36 149.328 72 96.328 108 72.698 144 59.062 180 50.093 .-10-/16 市中心城区暴雨强度查算表 P=5 年 t 单位：分钟；q 单位：升/秒/公顷 t q t q t q t q t q 1 450.819 37 166.633 73 108.322 109 81.975 145 66.686 2 427.551 38 164.04 74 107.329 110 81.443 146 66.351 3 406.819 39 161.536 75 106.357 111 80.919 147 66.019 4 388.216 40 159.117 76 105.405 112 80.402 148 65.692 5 371.422 41 156.777 77 104.471 113 79.892 149 65.367 6 356.177 42 154.513 78 103.556 114 79.39 150 65.047 7 342.27 43 152.321 79 102.658 115 78.894 151 64.73 8 329.526 44 150.198 80 101.778 116 78.406 152 64.416 9 317.801 45 148.141 81 100.915 117 77.924 153 64.106 10 306.973 46 146.145 82 100.067 118 77.449 154 63.799 11 296.941 47 144.209 83 99.236 119 76.98 155 63.496 12 287.616 48 142.33 84 98.42 120 76.518 156 63.195 13 278.925 49 140.505 85 97.619 121 76.062 157 62.898 14 270.802 50 138.731 86 96.833 122 75.612 158 62.604 15 263.192 51 137.007 87 96.06 123 75.168 159 62.313 16 256.047 52 135.331 88 95.302 124 74.73 160 62.025 17 249.323 53 133.7 89 94.556 125 74.297 161 61.74 18 242.983 54 132.112 90 93.824 126 73.87 162 61.458 19 236.994 55 130.566 91 93.104 127 73.448 163 61.179 20 231.327 56 129.06 92 92.396 128 73.032 164 60.902 21 225.956 57 127.593 93 91.701 129 72.621 165 60.629 22 220.857 58 126.163 94 91.017 130 72.216 166 60.358 23 216.01 59 124.768 95 90.345 131 71.815 167 60.09 24 211.395 60 123.407 96 89.683 132 71.419 168 59.824 25 206.996 61 122.079 97 89.032 133 71.028 169 59.562 26 202.797 62 120.783 98 88.392 134 70.642 170 59.301 27 198.786 63 119.518 99 87.762 135 70.261 171 59.044 28 194.948 64 118.282 100 87.142 136 69.884 172 58.788 29 191.272 65 117.074 101 86.532 137 69.512 173 58.536 30 187.749 66 115.893 102 85.932 138 69.144 174 58.285 31 184.369 67 114.739 103 85.34 139 68.78 175 58.037 32 181.122 68 113.611 104 84.758 140 68.421 176 57.792 33 178.001 69 112.507 105 84.185 141 68.066 177 57.549 34 174.998 70 111.427 106 83.62 142 67.715 178 57.308 35 172.106 71 110.37 107 83.063 143 67.368 179 57.069 36 169.32 72 109.335 108 82.515 144 67.025 180 56.832.-11-/16 市中心城区暴雨强度查算表 P=10 年 t 单位：分钟；q 单位：升/秒/公顷 t q t q t q t q t q 1 489.609 37 185.591 73 120.445 109 90.872 145 73.706 2 465.742 38 182.708 74 119.332 110 90.274 146 73.33 3 444.311 39 179.922 75 118.241 111 89.685 147 72.958 4 424.951 40 177.228 76 117.173 112 89.105 148 72.59 5 407.368 41 174.623 77 116.125 113 88.533 149 72.226 6 391.321 42 172.101 78 115.098 114 87.969 150 71.867 7 376.612 43 169.658 79 114.091 115 87.412 151 71.511 8 363.076 44 167.291 80 113.104 116 86.864 152 71.159 9 350.574 45 164.996 81 112.135 117 86.323 153 70.811 10 338.988 46 162.769 82 111.184 118 85.789 154 70.466 11 328.218 47 160.608 83 110.251 119 85.263 155 70.126 12 318.18 48 158.51 84 109.335 120 84.744 156 69.789 13 308.797 49 156.472 85 108.436 121 84.232 157 69.455 14 300.007 50 154.491 86 107.554 122 83.727 158 69.126 15 291.754 51 152.564 87 106.687 123 83.228 159 68.799 16 283.988 52 150.69 88 105.835 124 82.736 160 68.476 17 276.666 53 148.867 89 104.998 125 82.25 161 68.156 18 269.75 54 147.091 90 104.176 126 81.771 162 67.84 19 263.206 55 145.362 91 103.368 127 81.297 163 67.527 20 257.004 56 143.678 92 102.574 128 80.83 164 67.217 21 251.117 57 142.036 93 101.793 129 80.369 165 66.91 22 245.521 58 140.435 94 101.025 130 79.913 166 66.606 23 240.194 59 138.874 95 100.27 131 79.463 167 66.305 24 235.118 60 137.35 96 99.527 132 79.019 168 66.008 25 230.273 61 135.863 97 98.796 133 78.58 169 65.713 26 225.644 62 134.412 98 98.078 134 78.147 170 65.421 27 221.217 63 132.994 99 97.37 135 77.719 171 65.132 28 216.977 64 131.609 100 96.674 136 77.296 172 64.846 29 212.914 65 130.256 101 95.989 137 76.878 173 64.562 30 209.016 66 128.933 102 95.315 138 76.465 174 64.282 31 205.273 67 127.64 103 94.651 139 76.057 175 64.004 32 201.675 68 126.375 104 93.997 140 75.653 176 63.728 33 198.214 69 125.137 105 93.353 141 75.255 177 63.456 34 194.883 70 123.927 106 92.719 142 74.861 178 63.185 35 191.673 71 122.741 107 92.094 143 74.471 179 62.918 36 188.577 72 121.581 108 91.478 144 74.087 180 62.653.-12-/16 市中心城区暴雨强度查算表 P=20 年 t 单位：分钟；q 单位：升/秒/公顷 t q t q t q t q t q 1 526.878 37 204.517 73 131.922 109 98.858 145 79.701 2 502.814 38 201.319 74 130.677 110 98.19 146 79.282 3 481.012 39 198.228 75 129.458 111 97.532 147 78.867 4 461.161 40 195.237 76 128.263 112 96.884 148 78.457 5 443.005 41 192.343 77 127.092 113 96.245 149 78.052 6 426.33 42 189.54 78 125.944 114 95.615 150 77.651 7 410.959 43 186.824 79 124.818 115 94.993 151 77.255 8 396.741 44 184.192 80 123.713 116 94.381 152 76.863 9 383.549 45 181.638 81 122.63 117 93.777 153 76.476 10 371.271 46 179.16 82 121.567 118 93.181 154 76.092 11 359.816 47 176.754 83 120.523 119 92.593 155 75.713 12 349.1 48 174.417 84 119.499 120 92.014 156 75.338 13 339.052 49 172.146 85 118.494 121 91.442 157 74.967 14 329.612 50 169.938 86 117.507 122 90.878 158 74.599 15 320.723 51 167.791 87 116.537 123 90.321 159 74.236 16 312.338 52 165.701 88 115.585 124 89.772 160 73.877 17 304.414 53 163.668 89 114.649 125 89.23 161 73.521 18 296.914 54 161.687 90 113.73 126 88.694 162 73.169 19 289.803 55 159.758 91 112.826 127 88.166 163 72.82 20 283.052 56 157.878 92 111.938 128 87.645 164 72.475 21 276.632 57 156.045 93 111.065 129 87.13 165 72.134 22 270.52 58 154.258 94 110.206 130 86.622 166 71.796 23 264.693 59 152.515 95 109.362 131 86.12 167 71.462 24 259.132 60 150.814 96 108.532 132 85.624 168 71.131 25 253.818 61 149.153 97 107.715 133 85.135 169 70.803 26 248.735 62 147.532 98 106.911 134 84.651 170 70.478 27 243.867 63 145.948 99 106.121 135 84.174 171 70.157 28 239.202 64 144.401 100 105.343 136 83.702 172 69.839 29 234.726 65 142.889 101 104.577 137 83.236 173 69.524 30 230.427 66 141.41 102 103.823 138 82.776 174 69.212 31 226.296 67 139.965 103 103.081 139 82.321 175 68.903 32 222.321 68 138.551 104 102.35 140 81.871 176 68.597 33 218.496 69 137.168 105 101.63 141 81.427 177 68.293 34 214.81 70 135.814 106 100.922 142 80.988 178 67.993 35 211.256 71 134.489 107 100.223 143 80.554 179 67.696 36 207.827 72 133.192 108 99.536 144 80.125 180 67.401.-13-/16 市中心城区暴雨强度查算表 P=30 年 t 单位：分钟；q 单位：升/秒/公顷 t q t q t q t q t q 1 550.638 37 216.379 73 139.362 109 104.198 145 83.825 2 526.226 38 212.995 74 138.039 110 103.487 146 83.38 3 504.028 39 209.723 75 136.743 111 102.788 147 82.939 4 483.75 40 206.557 76 135.473 112 102.098 148 82.504 5 465.148 41 203.492 77 134.227 113 101.418 149 82.073 6 448.018 42 200.523 78 133.006 114 100.748 150 81.647 7 432.19 43 197.646 79 131.809 115 100.087 151 81.226 8 417.517 44 194.856 80 130.634 116 99.435 152 80.809 9 403.874 45 192.15 81 129.482 117 98.793 153 80.397 10 391.155 46 189.522 82 128.352 118 98.159 154 79.99 11 379.267 47 186.971 83 127.242 119 97.534 155 79.587 12 368.13 48 184.493 84 126.153 120 96.918 156 79.188 13 357.672 49 182.084 85 125.084 121 96.31 157 78.794 14 347.833 50 179.742 86 124.034 122 95.71 158 78.403 15 338.558 51 177.464 87 123.002 123 95.118 159 78.017 16 329.799 52 175.246 88 121.989 124 94.533 160 77.635 17 321.513 53 173.088 89 120.994 125 93.957 161 77.257 18 313.662 54 170.986 90 120.016 126 93.388 162 76.883 19 306.212 55 168.938 91 119.055 127 92.826 163 76.513 20 299.132 56 166.942 92 118.111 128 92.272 164 76.146 21 292.394 57 164.996 93 117.182 129 91.724 165 75.784 22 285.975 58 163.098 94 116.269 130 91.184 166 75.425 23 279.852 59 161.246 95 115.371 131 90.65 167 75.069 24 274.003 60 159.439 96 114.487 132 90.123 168 74.718 25 268.411 61 157.676 97 113.619 133 89.603 169 74.369 26 263.059 62 155.953 98 112.764 134 89.089 170 74.025 27 257.931 63 154.27 99 111.923 135 88.581 171 73.683 28 253.013 64 152.626 100 111.095 136 88.079 172 73.345 29 248.292 65 151.02 101 110.281 137 87.584 173 73.01 30 243.757 66 149.449 102 109.479 138 87.094 174 72.679 31 239.396 67 147.912 103 108.689 139 86.611 175 72.351 32 235.2 68 146.41 104 107.912 140 86.133 176 72.026 33 231.158 69 144.94 105 107.146 141 85.66 177 71.704 34 227.263 70 143.501 106 106.392 142 85.194 178 71.385 35 223.506 71 142.092 107 105.65 143 84.732 179 71.069 36 219.881 72 140.713 108 104.918 144 84.276 180 70.756.-14-/16 市中心城区暴雨强度查算表 P=50 年 t 单位：分钟；q 单位：升/秒/公顷 t q t q t q t q t q 1 578.633 37 230.781 73 148.512 109 110.817 145 88.972 2 553.835 38 227.178 74 147.095 110 110.056 146 88.494 3 531.198 39 223.693 75 145.706 111 109.305 147 88.022 4 510.445 40 220.32 76 144.345 112 108.566 148 87.555 5 491.347 41 217.054 77 143.011 113 107.836 149 87.093 6 473.71 42 213.889 78 141.702 114 107.118 150 86.636 7 457.369 43 210.821 79 140.419 115 106.409 151 86.185 8 442.185 44 207.845 80 139.161 116 105.71 152 85.738 9 428.036 45 204.958 81 137.926 117 105.021 153 85.297 10 414.819 46 202.154 82 136.714 118 104.342 154 84.86 11 402.442 47 199.431 83 135.525 119 103.672 155 84.428 12 390.826 48 196.785 84 134.358 120 103.011 156 84.001 13 379.902 49 194.213 85 133.212 121 102.358 157 83.578 14 369.609 50 191.711 86 132.086 122 101.715 158 83.16 15 359.893 51 189.277 87 130.981 123 101.08 159 82.746 16 350.705 52 186.908 88 129.895 124 100.454 160 82.336 17 342.004 53 184.601 89 128.828 125 99.835 161 81.931 18 333.749 54 182.354 90 127.78 126 99.225 162 81.53 19 325.908 55 180.165 91 126.749 127 98.623 163 81.133 20 318.45 56 178.031 92 125.736 128 98.028 164 80.74 21 311.346 57 175.95 93 124.741 129 97.441 165 80.352 22 304.572 58 173.92 94 123.762 130 96.862 166 79.967 23 298.104 59 171.94 95 122.799 131 96.289 167 79.586 24 291.922 60 170.006 96 121.852 132 95.724 168 79.209 25 286.007 61 168.119 97 120.92 133 95.166 169 78.836 26 280.341 62 166.276 98 120.004 134 94.615 17