南非国际事务研究所-核电和治理框架：埃及、加纳和南非（英文）-2021.5-50正式版.doc

SpecialReportMarch 2021Nuclear Power and GovernanceFrameworks: Egypt, Ghana andSouth AfricaEDITED BY YARIK TURIANSKYI & JO-ANSIE VAN WYKAfrican perspectivesGlobal insightsExecutive summaryThis report examines three African countries that are at different stages in using nuclear energy to achieve developmental outcomes. The year 2020 marked the 50th anniversary of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons entering into force. This treaty asserted the right of all states to the peaceful use of nuclear technology. This is important for African states, which are trying to make progress in terms of the UNs 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and priority areas of the AUs Agenda 2063. Many of these states also have the resources needed for nuclear energy, such as uranium, plutonium, thorium and zirconium.Egypt, Ghana and South Africa have been selected as case studies for this report, as they represent three African countries at different points in their journey towards the peaceful use of nuclear energy.Egypt has been expected to develop a nuclear weapons programme because of its historical role as a leader in the pan-Arab movement, and the fact that it is the most populous country in the Arab world. However, the country instead opted for non-proliferation and the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Now it is finally realising a long-held dream by building a nuclear power plant in cooperation with ROSATOM, the Russian state atomic energy corporation. The professed objective of the project is to achieve self-sufficiency in terms of energy amid increasing demand and a growing population. However, the project has also been framed with overtones of national prestige, and critics have noted that non-nuclear options should have been given greater consideration.Ghana aspires to do the same, although its nuclear ambitions are still at a nascent stage. Electricity supply in the country has been outstripped by demand, leading to numerous energy crises. The government of Ghana has renewed its commitment to implement a nuclear power programme and to use nuclear power to drive economic development. The country is approaching this in a responsible manner, by following the International Atomic Energy Agencys Milestones Approach. This is a comprehensive guide for the establishment of nuclear power programmes that sets out three phases imperative to developing the infrastructure necessary to support a nuclear programme. While significant steps have been taken in establishing a nuclear programme in Ghana, much work lies ahead.South Africa has the most advanced nuclear programme in Africa, and the continents only nuclear power plant. Post-apartheid South Africa was regarded as the poster child for nuclear disarmament, nuclear non-proliferation and the peaceful use of nuclear energy after voluntarily dismantling its nuclear weapons programme. It joined a number of multilateral nuclear regimes and organisations and signed various international agreements. One of the most significant nuclear legacies of apartheid South Africa is the nuclear facilities created during that era. However, Africas first and only nuclear power plant, Koeberg, and the SAFARI-1 research reactor have recently reached their end-of-life cycle. Urgent investment is needed to secure the extension of their lifespan, as is additional investment to meet the broader energy demands of the country.2Special Report | NUCLEAR POWER AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS: EGYPT, GHANA AND SOUTH AFRICAAbbreviations & acronymsAEBAtomic Energy BoardAECAtomic Energy CorporationAGAustralia GroupANCAfrican National CongressDMREDepartment of Mineral Resources and EnergyEAEAEgypt Atomic Energy AgencyEEenergy efficiencyELAEarthlife AfricaENRRAEgyptian Nuclear and Radiological Regulatory AuthorityGAECGhana Atomic Energy CommissionGNPPGhana Nuclear Power ProgrammeGNPPOGhana Nuclear Power Programme OrganisationIAEAInternational Atomic Energy AgencyINIRIntegrated Nuclear Infrastructure ReviewIRPIntegrated Resource PlanMoEEMinistry of Electricity and Renewable EnergyMTCRMissile Technology Control RegimeNAMNon-Aligned MovementNECSASouth African Nuclear Energy CorporationNEPIONuclear Energy Programme Implementation OrganisationNPPANuclear Power Plants AuthorityNPTTreaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear WeaponsNRANuclear Regulatory AuthorityNRWDINational Radioactive Waste Disposal InstituteNSGNuclear Suppliers GroupSAFCEISouthern African Faith Communities Environment InstituteSONAState of the Nation AddressCSOcivil society organisationPAIAPromotion of Access to Information ActPBMRPebble Bed Modular ReactorRFIrequest for information3Special Report | NUCLEAR POWER AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS: EGYPT, GHANA AND SOUTH AFRICARPIRadiation Protection InstituteiThemba LABSiThemba Laboratory for Accelerator Based SciencesWAWassenaar Arrangement on Export Controls for Conventional Arms andDual-Use Goods and TechnologiesZCZangger Committee4Special Report | NUCLEAR POWER AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS: EGYPT, GHANA AND SOUTH AFRICAAuthorsYarik Turianskyiis the Deputy Programme Head for African Governance and Diplomacy at the South African Institute of International Affairs. He is the author of over 12 research papers focused on governance, technology and gender, and over 30 opinion pieces on various governance themes. He has conducted research in 10 African countries and is the co-editor of African Accountability: What Works and What Doesnt.Jo-Ansie van Wykis a Professor of International Politics in the Department of Political Sciences, University of South Africa. She also leads SAIIAs Atoms for Africas Development project. A Fulbright Alumna and the winner of UNISAs 2014 Leadership in Research Women Award, her research interests include South African foreign policy, diplomacy and international relations, and nuclear diplomacy.Heba TahaHeba Taha is an affiliate with Nuclear Knowledges at Sciences Po Paris and a lecturer at Leiden University in the Netherlands. Her research lies at the intersection of economy and militarism, and she is interested in exploring the history and politics of nuclear technology in the Middle East.Hubert Foyis the Founding Director of the African Centre for Science and International Security based in Accra, Ghana. His areas of interest include: nuclear security; nonproliferation and arms control; disarmament verification; and global missile systems proliferationIsabel Bosmanis a Konrad Adenauer Stiftung research scholar at SAIIA working with the African Governance and Diplomacy Programme.5Special Report | NUCLEAR POWER AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS: EGYPT, GHANA AND SOUTH AFRICAAcknowledgmentSAIIA is grateful to the Norwegian Ministry of Foreign Affairs for supporting the Atoms for Africas Development project.About SAIIASAIIA is an independent, non-government think tank whose key strategic objectives are to make effective input into public policy, and to encourage wider and more informed debate on international affairs, with particular emphasis on African issues and concerns.SAIIAS special reports are fairly lengthy analytical papers, usually reflecting on and analysing the findings of field research.Cover imageInside detail of a nuclear reactor (Getty Images)All rights reserved. Copyright is vested in the South African Institute of International Affairs and the authors, and no part may be reproduced in whole or in part without the express permission, in writing, of the publisher.6Special Report | NUCLEAR POWER AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS: EGYPT, GHANA AND SOUTH AFRICAContentsExecutive summary2Abbreviations & acronyms3Authors5CHAPTER 19Introduction9CHAPTER 211Origins of nuclear programmes11Egypt11Ghana14South Africa17CHAPTER 322Existing installations22Egypt22Ghana22South Africa22CHAPTER 425Governance frameworks25Egypt25Ghana27South Africa30CHAPTER 533International commitments33Egypt33Ghana35South Africa36CHAPTER 638Civil society and public input38Egypt38Ghana38South Africa397Special Report | NUCLEAR POWER AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS: EGYPT, GHANA AND SOUTH AFRICACHAPTER 741The way forward41Egypt41Ghana43South Africa44CHAPTER 846Conclusion46CHAPTER 947Policy recommendations47Egypt47Ghana47South Africa488Special Report | NUCLEAR POWER AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS: EGYPT, GHANA AND SOUTH AFRICACHAPTER 1IntroductionThe year 2020 marked the 50th anniversary of the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) entering into force. Although the treaty is an important pillar of global security in terms of the weaponisation of nuclear energy, it also asserts the right of all states to the peaceful use of nuclear technology. This is particularly important for the African continent. African countries are looking at ways to achieve the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and make headway on priority areas of Agenda 2063. One of the ways to achieve developmental progress is through nuclear energy. Apart from possessing the natural resources (uranium, plutonium, thorium and zirconium) necessary for nuclear energy, a number of African states are either building or expanding their facilities for civilian use. Others are working jointly with international institutions and other countries (in both the North and the South) to leverage the developmental benefits that can be derived from this technology.Egypt, Ghana and South Africa have been selected as case studies for this report because they represent countries at different points in their journey towards the peaceful use of nuclear energyEgypt, Ghana and South Africa have been selected as case studies for this report because they represent countries at different points in their journey towards the peaceful use of nuclear energy. Egypt is finally realising its long-held dream of building a nuclear power plant. Ghana aspires to do the same, although its nuclear ambitions are still at a nascent stage. South Africa has the most advanced nuclear programme on the continent, and Africas only nuclear power plant. Yet it too faces challenges, owing to ageing equipment and maladministration.First, this report gives the background of each nuclear project. This not only provides a historical overview of a countrys nuclear ambitions and the progress achieved but also shows how political considerations and changing political administrations (whether through democratic means or coups) can have significant ramifications for national nuclear goals.Second, it lists existing nuclear installations, facilities and research centres in each of the country case studies, along with a brief description of their work on nuclear energy. Third, it discusses relevant domestic governance frameworks and structures that are crucial for the safe and secure use of nuclear energy. The past decade saw several low-profile nuclear9Special Report | NUCLEAR POWER AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS: EGYPT, GHANA AND SOUTH AFRICAincidents on the continent, some of which were only revealed after the fact. This does not help to inspire public trust in nuclear power.Fourth, the report gives an overview of international commitments made by each country over the years. Africa (with the exception of South Sudan) has committed to and ratified all the major disarmament treaties, including the NPT. The continent has also a home-grown initiative, the African Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty (Pelindaba Treaty), which entered into force on 15 July 2009. Compliance with international and continental standards is crucial for states interested in pursuing a nuclear path.Fifth, it discusses the role of civil society and public input into nuclear matters. It is necessary to encourage the active engagement of civil society organisations (CSOs), women and youth groups in discussions on governance and regulatory institutions in Africa, as well as on nuclear non-proliferation and the peaceful use of nuclear technology. This is crucial, as many of these discussions are happening behind closed doors and among officials, with very little information or transparency on the broader implications for society. Informed engagement by civil society (including the media) helps to galvanise governments and intergovernmental organisations.Lastly, the report charts the way forward for each country in pursuing or expanding its nuclear capabilities. Based on this section, this report makes practical policy recommendations.10Special Report | NUCLEAR POWER AND GOVERNANCE FRAMEWORKS: EGYPT, GHANA AND SOUTH AFRICACHAPTER 2Origins of nuclear programmesEgyptBecause of Egypts historical role as a leader in the pan-Arab movement and the fact that it is the most populous country in the Arab world, it has been expected and has often faced pressure to develop a nuclear weapons programme.1 Indeed, since the 1950s political analysts have consistently argued in favour of Egypts need for a bomb. However, the country opted instead for non-proliferation, and scholars have frequently used its path as a case study on nuclear restraint.2The logic behind a nuclear programme in the years immediately after its independence was based on a combination of technological modernism, its leadership role in the Arab world and the Non-Aligned Movement (NAM), and a desire for a balance of power with Israel (a point that is elaborated on in greater detail later). The idea of a nuclear programme even a peaceful one has therefore been associated with national pride, and each of the countrys presidents has discussed nuclear aspirations. Plans to establish a civilian nuclear power programme have almost consistently been under consideration but never implemented, until now.The idea of a nuclear programme even a peaceful one has been associated with national pride, and each of the countrys presidents has discussed nuclear asp