2021全球经济前景.docx
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1、Summary of ContentsAcknowledgments xiiiForewordxvExecutive SummaryxviiAbbreviations xixGlobal Outlook 1Box 1.1 How has the pandemic made the fourth wave of debt more dangerous?12Box 1.2 Recent developments and outlook for low-income countries 28Box 1.3 Regional perspectives: Recent developments cind
2、 outlook 35Box 1.4 Global growth scenarios39Chapter 1 Regional Outlooks65East Asia and Pacific 67Europe and Central Asia 73Latin America and theCaribbean81Middle East and North Africa89South Asia 95Sub-Saharan Africa 101Global Economy: Heading into a Decade of Disappointments?113Box 3.1 Global econo
3、my: Alost decade ahead? 122Box 3.2 Impact of COVID-19 on investment: Deep, persistent, and broad based128Box 3.3 From institutional reforms to long-term growth 140Asset Purchases in Emerging Markets: Unconventional Policies, Unconventional Times 169Box 4.1 Remembering history: Monetary financing of
4、fiscal deficits in EMDEs 182Statistical Appendix 199Selected Topics 206percent growth in 2021 is insuffi cient to reverse last years output losses, and is being held back by factors including planned fiscal consolidation and long-standing weakness in investment. Growth is projected to slow to 2.6 pe
5、rcent in 2022 as external demand growth softens and the boost to economic activity from labor market improvements begins to fade.Argentinas economy is forecast to grow by 4.9 percent this year, which would be the first positive growth rate in four years. A loosening of pandemic mitigation measures a
6、nd fading uncertainty surrounding the recent debt restructuring are expected to support private consumption and investment. As consumption slows, growth is projected to soften to 1.9 percent in 2022.In Colombia, growth is projected to reach 4.9 percent in 2021, underpinned by solid domestic demand.
7、The energy sector is expected to benefit from rising oil prices. Growth is projected to be sustained at 4.3 percent in 2022.Activity in Chile is projected to expand by 4.2 percent in 2021, building on momentum already evident in late 2020. Growth in Peru is poised to recover to 7.6 percent this year
8、 after suffering one of the regions deepest recessions in 2020 amid a particularly large COVID-19 outbreak and accompanying mitigation measures, which included lengthy mine closures. Growth in both countries will benefit from rising copper prices and ongoing easy monetary policy, before softening in
9、 2022.In Central America, growth is forecast to bounce back to 3.6 percent in 2021, underpinned by stronger remittance inflows and more robust export demand, as well as reconstruction after Hurricanes Ela and Iota in November and, in El Salvador, two other severe tropical storms last year. Growth in
10、 the Caribbean is projected to rebound to 4.5 percent in 2021, boosted by a partial recovery of tourism to pre-pandemic levels, and with it employment.Despite a return to growth in the short term, the economic impacts of the pandemic will linger. By 2022, real GDP in LAC is projected to still be nea
11、rly 7 percent below the level projected in January 2020. In half of LAC economies, the recession in 2020 is estimated to have set back per capita GDP to levels last seen five to nine years ago, compared to about onc-quartcr of all EMDEs, while two-fifths of LAC economies have experienced per capita
12、GDP setbacks of 10 or more years (figure 2.3.2.B).High levels of uncertainty and tighter financing conditions during the pandemic have led to delays in infrastructure spending and cuts to research and development, hindering future productivity (Dieppe 2020; World Bank 2020i). Human capital is being
13、eroded due to large number of workers being separated from their jobs for a prolonged period and schools being closed. Potential growth in the region, already weakening due in large part to anemic productivity, will be further set back by the pandemic (figure 2.3.2.C).RisksRisks to the baseline outl
14、ook for LAC are weighted to the downside. Economic activity could be dragged down further by a failure to slow the spread of the pandemic, strains related to debt and external financing, a resurgence of social unrest, deeper-than-expected economic damage from the pandem把 in the medium term, and disr
15、uptions related to climate change and natural disasters.An improvement in economic conditions will depend on the extent to which the pandemic can be controlled. Renewed outbreaks; difficulties obtaining or distributing vaccines, especially in countries without domestic production capabilities; or ch
16、allenges surrounding the efficacy of vaccines could force the reintroduction of mitigation measures, with grave economic consequences. External demand could be curtailed by the reimposition of control measures in major global economies, some of which experienced a resurgence of COV1D-I9 in late 2020
17、.Deterioration of investor sentiment is a significant risk to the economic outlook. Fiscal stimulus was necessarj- to cushion the economic blow of the pandemic, but it has largely depleted limited fiscal space. Government debt in the median LAC economy has risen sharply, from 53 percent of GDP in 20
18、19 to 69 percent in 2020 (figure 2.3.2.D). Credit worthiness has already fallen across the region. Several sovereigns and large corporations have received credit rating downgrades since the start of the pandemic. Argentina and Ecuador were upgraded by Standard & Rkj心 since early 2020, in part due io
19、 the conclusion of debt restructuring, but bond spreads in Argentina have risen after an immediate postrestructuring fall. Policy makers will need to carefully prioritize spending while removing temporary measures that reduced revenues in 2020. A sudden tightening of bond yields, sharp currency depr
20、eciation, or further credit downgrades could interrupt capital inflows and make debt servicing significantly more challenging, with possible knock-on stress for domestic banking systems. However, these risks are partly mitigated by increasingly deep localcurrency debt markets in some economies. Coun
21、tries lacking credible medium-term plans to reduce fiscal deficits and debt levels fece particular risks related to adverse shifts in market sentiment.The large income shock caused by the pandemic is estimated to have pushed millions of people in the region into poverty, reversing the long-term down
22、ward trend in the poverty headcount (figure 2.3.2.E). Combined with entrenched inequality of opportunity and a worsening perception of government effectiveness over time, the rise in poverty could reignite the social unrest that the region experienced in 2019.The adverse long-term impacts of the pan
23、demic could be worse than expected. The process of reabsorbing the large number of formal workers who have become unemployed or inactive during the past year could be prolonged, extending the strain of income losses. Knowledge and skills lost during schooling disruptions could impede longterm produc
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