IMF前主席演讲.doc
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1、Northeast Asia: Seizing the Opportunities of GlobalizationSpeech by Horst KhlerManaging Director of the International Monetary FundAt the International Conference on a New Vision and Strategy under Changing Leadership in Northeast AsiaSeoul, February 27, 2004 东北亚:抓住全球化的机遇 演辞霍斯特克勒 管理国际货币基金主任 本会在上一个新的
2、视野和战略问题国际会议正在嬗变中的东北亚领导力 汉城,2004年2月27日 Mr. President, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen,It is a privilege to participate in this important conference today. It is a particular pleasure for me to be back in Seoul. When I was here four years ago, Korea was recovering from its severe economic c
3、risis, and still struggling with the problems of the past. Yesterday, I had the honor of meeting with President Roh and was impressed by his vision for Korea, a vision whose focus is firmly on the future, a future of peace and prosperity in Korea, securely embedded in Northeast Asia.主席先生,各位嘉宾,女士们,先生
4、们,很荣幸来参加这次重要的会议今天。这是我特别高兴在韩国汉城回来。当我四年前在这里,韩国恢复从严重的经济危机,仍然与过去的问题所困扰。昨天,我有幸与总统卢武铉会面是由他的荣誉和韩国,一个视觉的焦点是对未来的坚定,一个和平与繁荣的未来在韩国在东北亚地区安全的嵌入式,视觉印象。2. This conference takes place against the background of a significant strengthening of the global economic outlook. Led by the United States, the world economy no
5、w has the potential for a return to solid growth. The recovery is broadening and deepening, with all major regions showing improvement. And Asia, led by China and India, is in the vanguard of the global recovery. I expect that this will be reflected in an upward revision of the IMFs estimate for glo
6、bal growth in 2004. This rising tide will also lift Korea, and we expect growth in this country to accelerate in 2004.2. 这次会议需要对经济前景的背景下发生的全球一个重要加强。由美国领导,现在世界经济已恢复增长,以坚实的潜力。回收率为扩大和深化,显示出改善与所有主要地区。和亚洲,中国和印度的领导下,在全球经济复苏的先锋。我期望,这将是在基金组织对2004年全球经济增长预期向上修正反映。这一潮流也将取消韩国,我们期望在这个国家在2004年加速增长。 3. But we know
7、 that there are still risks to this outlook, notably arising from the persistent current account imbalances in the global economy. The recovery is still uneven, with growth relatively rapid in the United States and emerging Asia, picking up in Japan, but with the euro area lagging behind. Ensuring t
8、hat the recovery is robust and sustained requires cooperation. And such cooperation should ensure that no region bears a disproportionate burden of adjustment. This requires a durable increase in national savings in the United States, with priority on establishing a framework for returning to fiscal
9、 balance over the medium term. It requires an ambitious acceleration of the pace of structural reform in Europe and Japan to lift their productive potential. And in those countries in Asia that have experienced a rapid accumulation of foreign exchange reserves, it requires making increased use of th
10、e scope for exchange rate flexibility and structural reforms to underpin domestic demand growth. Such commitments, made more credible by being collective, would underpin the expectation of a smooth adjustment in global imbalances.3. 但我们知道有这种风险仍然前景,特别是经济所产生的持久性,在全球经常账户失衡。但是复苏仍然不平衡,增长较快,在美国和亚洲新兴市场,加快在
11、日本长大,但随着欧元区滞后。 确保稳健和持续的复苏是需要合作。而这种合作应确保没有一个地区承担的过重负担的调整。这就要求在优先在美国国民储蓄的持久增长,为返回建立在中期财政平衡的框架。它需要一个在欧洲和日本的结构性改革步伐的加快,取消其雄心勃勃的生产潜力。在亚洲和那些已经经历了外汇储备快速积累的国家,它需要使汇率弹性和结构改革,增加了使用范围,以支持国内需求的增长。这样的承诺,更可信的是集体的,将支持对全球失衡的顺利调整的期望。 4. Asias growing weight in the world economy gives it an important role in global c
12、ooperation.Asia now accounts for over a quarter of world exports and one third of world output. Korea itself surely ranks among the leading examples of Asias success: from being among the worlds poorest countries, Koreas real per capita income has increased 12-fold over the past two generations. And
13、 Asia is rapidly becoming more integrated. Intra-regional trade now accounts for 40 percent of Asias exports, compared to 30 percent a decade ago. Chinas strong growth, in particular, is fuelling a vibrant Northeast Asian region.4. 亚洲的增长在世界经济中的份量给它一个全球合作的重要作用。亚洲目前产量占全世界四分之一的世界出口的三分之一。韩国本身肯定跻身亚洲取得成功的
14、最典型的例子:从在世界上最穷的国家韩国的人均实际收入,而增加了在过去两个世代的12倍。区域内贸易目前占亚洲的40出口的百分之,比十年前的百分之三十。中国的强劲增长,尤其是加剧东北亚地区一个充满活力。 5. Embracing global economic integration lies at the root of Asias success.And globalization continues to offer much promise, for Asia and for the world. I see tremendous potential for further long-te
15、rm growth in the global economy. Technological progress continues at a rapid pace, and ever stronger trade and financial linkages are promoting further international division of labor and expanding markets-holding out the promise of gains in productivity and standards of living everywhere. But these
16、 gains are not automatic. Many have not been able to seize the opportunities offered by globalization, and severe poverty persists in too many countries. And as we know from experience, openness and economic interdependence can exacerbate the spillovers of economic shocks across countries, and ampli
17、fy domestic economic problems. Moreover, the rapid integration of China, India, and other large emerging markets into the world economy is raising competitive pressures for everyone, increasing the need for flexibility and innovation.5. 迎接全球经济一体化的成功的根源在于在亚洲。和全球化继续提供充满希望,对亚洲和世界。我认为进一步的长期全球经济增长的巨大潜力。技
18、术进步继续以快速的步伐,不断加强贸易和金融联系正在进一步促进国际分工,扩大市场控股了在世界各地的生产力水平和生活水平收益的承诺。但这些成果是不是自动的。许多人没有能够抓住全球化带来的机遇和严峻的贫困在许多国家仍然存在。当我们从经验中知道,开放和经济相互依存会加剧各国经济冲击的外溢,健全的国内经济问题。此外,中国,印度和其他大型新兴市场融入世界经济一体化的迅速提高大家的竞争压力,增加了灵活性和创新的需要。 6. How can other countries in Asia best address these pressures? And how can all countries ensur
19、e that they can seize benefits and opportunities of globalization while containing its inevitable risks? Allow me today to reflect briefly on these questions in the context of the rapid development of Asia, and the rise of Northeast Asia in particular.6. 如何在亚洲其他国家能够最好地解决这些压力?又如何能确保所有国家,他们可以抓住全球化的利益和
20、机会,同时载有其不可避免的风险?请允许我对今天反映在亚洲迅速发展的背景下这些问题简单地说,与东北亚,特别是上升。7. First, domestic economic policies in Asia must continue to be geared toward building resilient and competitive economies. This requires, in particular, strengthening domestic sources of growth, including by vigorously tackling incomplete ref
21、orms in the financial and corporate sectors. It also requires pursuing policies that make economies more flexible and capable of absorbing economic shocks more easily. And it requires maintaining a good business climate, conducive to investment, growth, and employment creation.7. 第一,在亚洲的国内经济政策必须继续朝着
22、建设面向经济活力和竞争力。这就要求,特别是加强金融和企业部门中的国内来源的不完整的改革发展,包括大力治理。它还要求奉行的政策,使经济更加灵活和更容易地吸收经济冲击的能力。它需要保持一个良好的营商环境,有利于投资,经济增长和创造就业机会。 8. Korea has made significant strides in implementing the policies needed to take advantage of the new opportunities. Its skilled work force provides a strong foundation for future
23、growth, and has allowed it to become a major center for advanced technology products. In recent years, Korea has further opened up its economy and China is now its number one trading partner. And its prudent policies and low level of public debt have positioned it well to address the challenges of a
24、n aging society. Overall, Korea can look to the future with self-confidence that President Rohs vision of doubling per capita incomes to $20,000 is achievable. But it will require perseverance in implementing its reform agenda. Specifically, I see three critical tasks for Korea in the years ahead:8.
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