全球经济展望:预期今年全球经济增长5%.docx
《全球经济展望:预期今年全球经济增长5%.docx》由会员分享,可在线阅读,更多相关《全球经济展望:预期今年全球经济增长5%.docx(26页珍藏版)》请在得力文库 - 分享文档赚钱的网站上搜索。
1、March 2021Global Economic OutlookContentsThe global outlook:Public spending after COVID04Countries and regions in focus:The US: Building a bridge to the post-pandemic economy 06China: Consumption and Services should contribute more to future recovery08Japan: Economy hopes for recovery during Olympic
2、 year 10India: Fiscal stimulus and targeted policy impetus to drive growth12Eurozone: Short-term setbacks followed by a fragile recovery 14UK: Nascent recovery on the horizon16Saudi Arabia: Recovery centred on oil price trends18一 Middle East: GCC leads growth in the region20Nigeria: Modest recovery
3、despite rising oil prices22South Africa: Path towards growth and sustainability2420gl-dbpyright owned by oneKPMG Internationaf entities. KPIVW&4nternational entities provide。Appendix: KPMG country forecastsIndia: Fiscal stimulus and targeted policy mpetus to drive growthThe Indian economy is showing
4、 early signs of a broad V-shaped recovery, owing to larger public stimulus spends, the revival of consumer confidence, robust financial markets and an uptick in manufacturing activity.The proposed 34.5% hike in capital expenditure is expected to drive private investment while also boosting demand.In
5、come levels and livelihood opportunities are expected to further improve in FY22, as economic recovery gathers pace and vaccine administration progresses.India is estimated to have one of the quickest economic rebounds in Asia.202020212022GDP4.0-8.010.5Inflation4.86.54.5Unemployment rateFY20 & FY21
6、is based on CMIE data.With India emerging out of the pandemic-induced recession, its GDP improved by 0.4% in the December quarter, and these trends look set to continue in the final quarter of Indias financial year, which ends on 31 March 2021. This is evident from high-frequency indicators such as
7、Goods and Services Tax (GST) collections, automobile and tractor sales, rail freight traffic, power demand, Purchasing Managers/ Index (PMI), and corporate revenues. Also, with the easing of mobility restrictions, manufacturing activity is reverting to pre-COVID levels. However, services, particular
8、ly high contact services, continue to lag.Indias GDP growth is expected to rebound to 10.5% during 2021-22. To further stimulate growth, policies over recent months have been focused on reforms that propagate growth. For example, the manufacturing sector stands to benefit from Production-Linked Ince
9、ntives (PLIs) announced for key sectors that aim to showcase India as a preferred manufacturing and export hub. Meanwhile, services growth is expected to gain traction in 2H22 (especially contactintensive services) as vaccine availability and deployment improves. The outlook for growth in agricultur
10、e is contingent on the monsoon season, and the sector is expected to maintain growth similar to the current financial year (3%, year-on-year), if the monsoons are normal.7.610.48.1Table 4: KPMG forecasts for IndiaSource: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. Real GDP (at constant pric
11、es) for FY21 is advanced estimates.12Chart 9: Decisive signs of V-shaped recovery are visibleAs the Indian economy returns to normalcy, there could be a healthy rise in tax collections as well as an uptick in public revenues arising from the disinvestment process. In this context, it is pertinent to
12、 note that the government has indicated that the sale of government stakes in selected State-Owned Enterprises (SOEs) as well as publicly owned banks and Indias premier insurance company, is likely to be completed by the next financial year. This large-scale privatization process, coupled with the 6
13、.8% fiscal deficit targeted for 2021-22, is expected to provide headway for incremental expenditures on healthcare and capital creation, which will play a pivotal role in enhancing the focus on sustainable economic development. These initiatives are expected to restore the pandemic-induced hiatus in
14、 the generation of new employment opportunities.The Indian government has undertaken a slew of reforms, including labor reforms, corporate tax cuts and PLIs to steer the economy to recovery in the next financial year. However, key factors that will drive this rebound include normal monsoons, success
15、 in averting a full-fledged second wave of COVID, and discretionary spending staying unaffected by cost pressures, particularly those stemming from high pump prices of petrol and diesel.10%器、da。ZUXG-Xy2019-20Source: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. RBI Reserve Bank of India.Chart
16、 10: Inflation is likely to ease but remain above RBIs target of 4%Preeti SitaramDirector, Infrastructure, Government and Healthcare (IGH), KPMG in IndiaSource: Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. RBI - Reserve Bank of India.13Eurozone: Short-term setbacks followed by a fragile reco
17、veryStricter social distancing restrictions put in place to combat rising infection numbers have set back recovery.Despite generous fiscal and monetary support, the path to recovery will continue to diverge across the Eurozone.As more countries entered lockdown due to a rising number of COVID cases,
18、 the Eurozone economy ended 2020 with a fresh contraction. Ongoing restrictions in the first quarter of 2021 could see further falls in output, taking the economy back into recession, albeit a much milder one than seen at the start of the pandemic in the first half of 2020.Despite the recent rise in
19、 inflation, ECB policy rates are expected to remain unchanged over the next two years, with the ECB continuing to provide support to the economy via its program of asset purchases.A range of national and EU lending facilities, together with grants, have been put in place to shield the economy. Most
20、notably the Next Generation EU recovery plan, estimated at EUR750bn, is expected to provide support over the coming years through stronger investment as well as growth- oriented reforms.Table 5: KPMG forecasts for the Eurozone202020212022GDP-6.84.24.1Inflation0.31.21.2Unemployment rate88.98.4Source:
21、 Eurostat, KPMG forecasts. Average % change on previous calendar year except for unemployment rate, which is average annual rate. Inflation measure used is the HI CP.The outlook for this year is highly dependent on the speed of the vaccine rollout, as well as on the emergence of new variants of the
22、virus that may require the imposition of a more prolonged series of restrictions. In addition, the varying speed of recovery from the pandemic is expected to lead to further divergence in economic performance across Eurozone countries.14General government gross debt, % of GDPSeasonally adjusted yout
23、h (under 25s) unemployment, %Germany is one of the economies within the Eurozone to suffer the least during the pandemic, with its industrial production picking up in the second half of 2020 and exports benefiting from an early recovery in China.The extensive measures undertaken by the French author
- 配套讲稿:
如PPT文件的首页显示word图标,表示该PPT已包含配套word讲稿。双击word图标可打开word文档。
- 特殊限制:
部分文档作品中含有的国旗、国徽等图片,仅作为作品整体效果示例展示,禁止商用。设计者仅对作品中独创性部分享有著作权。
- 关 键 词:
- 全球经济 展望 预期 今年 增长
限制150内