中国猪肉消费现状与趋势.pdf
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1、中国猪肉消费现状和发展趋势 The current situation and trend of pork consumption in China王 珺中山大学岭南学院经济学教授国家生猪产业技术体系产业经济研究室主任Wang JunProfessor of Lingnan College,Sun Yat-sen UniversityChina Agriculture Research System,swine industry branch2主要内容 Outline?目前我国猪肉的消费总量、人均消费及城乡差异?改革开放以来我国猪肉消费的变动特征?我国与世界主要国家的猪肉消费比较?我国猪肉消费
2、的发展趋势?The total pork consumption,per capita pork consumption,and thedifferences of pork consumption between the urban and rural residents in China.?The main characters of pork consumption in China since 1978.?The comparision of the pork consumption in China and other countries.?The trend of pork con
3、sumption in China.3一、目前我国猪肉的消费总量、人均消费及城乡差异 1.The total consumption,consumption of per capita,and the difference between the urban and rural residents?消费总量Total pork consumption in China01000200030004000500060001979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009猪肉消费总量,Total pork consumpt
4、ion中国猪肉消费总量(单位:万吨),Total pork consumption(10,000 ton)注释:以下数据来源于:中国统计年鉴、中国畜牧业年鉴、中国农村统计年鉴、FAO、USDA、EUROstat等,the datas used here and following slides are obtained from FAOSTATA,USDA,EUROstat,China Statistical Yearbook,China Livestock Industry Yearbook,China Rural Statistical Yearbook.40102030405060701
5、9791982198519881991199419972000200320062009出口,export进口,import中国猪肉进口和出口(单位:万吨)The pork import and export of China(10,000 ton)5?人均消费量Per capita pork consumption05101520253035401979198119831985198719891991199319951997199920012003200520072009050001000015000200002500030000人均猪肉消费量per capita pork consumpti
6、on人均国内生产总值per capita GDP中国历年人均GDP及人均猪肉消费量(单位:元、kg)Annual per capita GDP and pork consumption in China(RMBYuan,Kg)6?城乡差异The difference of consumption between urban and rural residents.9111315171921231983年1985年1987年1989年1991年1993年1995年1997年1999年2001年2003年2005年2007年2009年 城镇家庭人均消费per capita pork consump
7、tion at home of urban residents农村家庭人均消费per capita pork consumption at home of rural residents中国城乡人均猪肉家庭消费量(单位:公斤)Per capita pork consumption at home of the urban and rural residents(Kg)7?猪肉需求对收入的弹性较低The income elasticity of pork demand is low.?猪肉需求对价格的弹性较低The price elasticity of pork demand is low?随
8、着收入增长,猪肉人均消费支出比重下降,人均消费量先上升后下降With the increase of the income,the share of per capita pork expenditure decrease and the per capita pork consumption increase and then decrease.二、改革开放以来我国猪肉消费的变动特征 2.The main characters of pork consumption in China since 1978.8?猪肉消费对收入的弹性较低The income elasticity of pork
9、 demand is low.城镇需求收入弹性Income elasticity of urban residents城镇需求收入弹性Income elasticity of urban residents农村需求收入弹性Income elasticity of rural residents农村需求收入弹性Income elasticity of rural residents1992-0.68-0.49 1993-0.19 0.00 1994-0.20-0.93 19950.15 0.38 1996-0.26 0.95 1997-3.16-0.60 19980.64 0.78 19990.
10、69 1.75 2000-0.17 2.20 2001-0.59 0.13 20021.90 0.53 20030.09 0.14 2004-0.84-0.35 20050.53 1.83 2006-0.08-0.13 2007-0.82-1.60 20080.70-0.72 20090.67 1.20 平均average平均average0.67 0.67 0.82 0.82 9?需求收入弹性的城乡差异Difference of income elasticity between urban and rural residents0500100015002000250030003500197
11、91981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720090510152025城镇人均可支配收入per capita disposable income of urban residents城镇居民人均家庭消费量per capita pork consumption at home ofurban residents收入income消费量consumption020040060080010001200140019791981198319851987198919911993199519971999200120032005200720
12、09024681012141618农村居民人均纯收入per capita disposable income of rural residents农村居民家庭人均猪肉消费量per capita pork consumption at home ofrural residents收入income消费量consumption城镇居民可支配收入与人均猪肉家庭消费量(单位:元、公 斤)the disposable income and per capita pork consumption of urban residents(RMByuan,Kg)农村居民可支配收入与人均猪肉家庭消费量(单位:元、公
13、 斤)the disposable income and per capita pork consumption of rural residents(RMByuan,Kg)10?猪肉需求价格弹性较低The price elasticity of pork demand is lowiitDcu+201234567lnlnlnlnlnlnlnlnititititititititqxxporkeggchickenbeefmutton=+主要数据:各省、市城镇居民季度猪肉消费支出数据(2007-2010)数据来源:国家统计局计量方法:面板数据的固定效应模型,对个体固定效应和时间固定效应进行了控制变
14、量:qit 人均猪肉消费量,xit 人均可支配收入,porkit,猪肉 价格,eggit 鸡蛋价格,beefit 牛肉价格,muttonit 羊肉价格,D,时间哑变量计量模型:Economitric model:11?计量结果:Economitric results?人均可支配收入与人均猪肉消费量呈倒U型关系?猪肉消费对猪肉价格的弹性为-0.2284?鸡蛋对猪肉有一定的替代效应。?牛肉和羊肉对猪肉存在一定的替代效应,但替代弹性很小,统计上也不显著。?猪肉与鸡肉互补还是替代?系数系数coefficentsP值值人均可支配收入的对数Per capita disposable income2.436
15、6 0.028人均可支配收入平方项Square of per capita income-0.1684 0.01猪肉价格对数Log of pork price-0.2284 0.071鸡蛋价格对数Log of egg price0.1802 0.104鸡肉价格对数Log of chicken price-0.3233 0.000牛肉价格对数Log of beef price0.0745 0.509羊肉价格对数Log of mutton price0.0146 0.863常数项Constant-6.5813 0.150因变量:人均猪肉消费量的对数Dependant variable:log of
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